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MNI FX Techs: EURO-DOLLAR: Tests Top of Bollinger Band
RES 4: $1.3910 55-day moving average
RES 3: $1.3853/73 Low 1 Feb, 38.2% retracement of Jan/Mar decline
RES 2: $1.3838/39 High 9 Feb, 55-DMA, 23.6% of Dec/Mar decline
RES 1: $1.3819 High 17 March
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3670
SUP 1: $1.3625 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.3530 Low 5 March
SUP 3: $1.3490 Current Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $1.3420/37 76.4% of April/Dec rally, Low 2 Mar
COMMENTARY: The euro tested the top of the daily Bollinger band, which
is now at $1.3780, at the same time as the 10-day momentum study is
fading. This may encourage further profit-taking back towards the 21-DMA
of $1.3625. The daily stochastic is yet to turn lower but bulls really
need to break above $1.3873/94, which includes a 38.2% retracement of
the Jan/Mar decline and the 200-week MA.
CABLE: Breaks Out of Flag Pattern
RES 4: $1.5583 38.2% retracement of Nov/Mar decline
RES 3: $1.5525 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.5420/22 61.8% of Feb/Mar decline, 38.2% of 2010 decline
RES 1: $1.5382 High 18 March
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5280
SUP 1: $1.5215 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5195 21-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.4950 Minor support line 1 Mar
SUP 4: $1.4866/73 Low 2, 10 March
COMMENTARY: Cable's recent bull-divergence in the daily stochastic and
momentum studies has been joined by a bull-cross in the 5 & 21-DMAs as
cable breaks out of the recent flag pattern, which if sustained could
imply gains back to the $1.5633 area. However, bulls need to overcome
double Fibonacci level at $1.5420/22 ahead of there.
DOLLAR-YEN: Remains in Ichimoku Cloud
RES 4: Y91.70 200-day moving average
RES 3: Y91.17/24 Minor resistance line 7 Jan, 76.4% retracement
RES 2: Y91.09 High 12 Mar
RES 1: Y90.78 Minor resistance line 19 Feb
CURRENT LEVEL: Y90.16
SUP 1: Y90.00/15 Ichimoku cloud base, 21 & 100-DMA, Kijun & Tenkan lines
SUP 2: Y89.65 Low 9 March
SUP 3: Y88.24 61.8% retracement of Oct/Dec rally
SUP 4: Y88.13 Low 4 March
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen holds just within the narrow Ichimoku cloud of
Y90.00/55, where the base meets the 21 & 100-DMAs as well as the Tenkan
& Kijun lines within Y90.10/15. This leaves the pair in a potentially
pivotal position as daily studies start to unwind support and the daily
stochastic risks a bear-cross.
EURO-YEN: Fibonacci Levels in Focus
RES 4: Y126.00 55-day moving average
RES 3: Y125.75 Base of Ichimoku cloud,
RES 2: Y125.60 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 1: Y125.22/29 High 22 Feb, 38.2% of 2010 decline
CURRENT PRICE: Y123.26
SUP 1: Y123.08 Tenkan line, 38.2% retracement of March recovery
SUP 2: Y122.85 21-day moving average
SUP 3: Y122.43 Kijun line, 50% retracement
SUP 4: Y121.46/78 Low 9 March, 61.8% retracement
COMMENTARY: The daily studies are stalling in euro-yen with momentum
turning lower and the stochastic risking a bear-cross. This comes as the
recovery stalled at the Fibonacci level and mid-Feb highs of Y125.22/29,
turning bear's attention back to near-term Fibonacci levels from
Y123.08.
EURO-STERLING: Pushes Below 21-DMA
RES 4: stg0.9198 Resistance line from December
RES 3: stg0.9150/54 High 1 March, 30 Nov
RES 2: stg0.9025 5-day moving average
RES 1: stg0.8975/82 21-day moving average, Low 5 March
CURRENT PRICE: stg0.8947
SUP 1: stg0.8915 100-day moving average
SUP 2: stg0.8907 50% retracement of Feb/Mar rally
SUP 3: stg0.8850 200-day moving average, 61.8% retracement
SUP 4: stg0.8840 High 11 Feb
COMMENTARY: Euro-sterling slumped through the 21-day moving average,
which turns initial resistance along with the March 5 low of
stg0.8975/82. The move is supported by the recent turn lower for the
stochastic study and a bear-cross in momentum, which has bears focused
on Fibonacci retracements of stg0.8907 (just under stg0.8915 100-DMA)
and stg0.8850, which meets the 200-DMA.
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