Market News European Morning Credit Mail
By Kevin Hanly
The broader markets are opening with a much more negative bias this
week, although at this point we are still within the confines of the
broad ranges that have been seen for over 2 weeks.
One of the catalysts for the move overnight was a surprise rate increase
from the Reserve Bank of India, and this has sparked concerns that other
Asian central banks may be tightening policy once again, in particular
China.
On the back of this move commodity markets have seen a knee-jerk
move lower, so basic materials in Europe will likely see some early
weakness and if commodities break short-term supports, we could see a
more widespread negative move start to develop. However, at this point
the move is fairly contained, as Asian stocks saw only around a 1% move
lower in the main.
Credit indices have seen a small degree of underperformance, with
higher beta benchmarks widening quite significantly. The sector has
recently been very robust in the face of a raft of supply, but given a
turn in sentiment, profit taking may be seen, which may weigh quite
heavily on the cash market.
Medium/longer-term studies remain somewhat neutral, so weakness
early this week will most likely just lead to a negative rotation to
range lows, possibly also weighed on by ongoing concerns around Eurozone
peripherals, with government spreads also opening with a slightly
negative bias also.
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CORPORATE HEADLINES
FINANCIALS
-- Alistair Darling will this week endorse plans for a global tax on
investment banks and other institutions that pose a "systemic
risk", but will rule out using the proceeds to create an insurance
fund against future bank failures - FT.
-- HSBC is expanding in big cities, as it veers away from its riskier
subprime model and instead focuses on a more affluent,
internationally connected consumer - WSJ.
-- The leader of the U.K.'s opposition Conservative Party, David
Cameron, pledged to introduce a levy on banks if his party wins the
coming election, regardless of whether there is international
agreement on such a move - WSJ.
AUTOS
-- The CEO of Volvo has said there are "many interested" bidders for
Renault's stake in the company should it choose to sell it - FAZ.
TMT
-- Deutsche Telekom's decision to set a 30% female management quota has
spurred a debate over the role women play in corporate Germany - WSJ.
-- EMI could allow others to sell, distribute its catalog to raise funds
and prevent a takeover by its lender - WSJ.
-- The chairman of ITV has said that the addition of pay television to
its currently free-to-air channels is likely, a step in the company's
"complete transformation" - Sunday Telegraph.
UTILITIES/ENERGY
-- Royal Dutch Shell announced a "significant new" oil find in the Gulf
of Mexico - FT.
-- Royal Dutch Shell and PetroChina today secured a board recommendation
from Arrow Energy after lifting their joint takeover bid for the
Australain energy producer - FT.
BASIC MATERIALS
-- Rio Tinto and Chinalco confirmed a link-up to develop iron ore in
Guinea - FT.
INDUSTRIALS
-- Babcock International Group has increased its offer for VT Group to
Stg2.5 bln from Stg1.3 bln - Mail on Sunday.
-- Henkel plans to reduce its debt by E300 mln this year the company's
CFO has said - Boersen-Zeitung.
CONSUMERS
-- British Airways cabin crews walked off the job for a second day
Sunday, as the union representing them called on management to
reopen talks and avoid another strike next weekend - WSJ.
-- Ocado narrowed its operating losses in 2009 as the online retailer
delivered a sharp rise in sales ahead of its planned Stg1 bln
initial public offering later this year - FT.
-- SABMiller and its Chinese partner will pursue acquisitions and
increase production capacity to boost growth in the world's most
populous nation - FT.
-- An unidentified US investor is considering bidding for Germany's 120
insolvent Karstadt department stores and Metro's chain of 113 stores
- Bild am Sonntag.
SOVEREIGN
-- Fierce German resistance to helping Greece has emerged in an FT
opinion poll that strengthens Angela Merkel's hand ahead of a
possible European showdown this week over financial aid for Athens -
FT.
-- Dubai World, the troubled Gulf investment fund, is to ask its
creditors for up to 8 more years to pay back a $22 billion debt
mountain, The Sunday Times reported. The crisis-hit investment
empire, owned by the Dubai state, will promise its lenders it will be
able to pay back all the money it owes if it can get the extension.
The debt restructuring proposals will be put to a seven-strong
committee of the group's senior creditors in Dubai this week.
OTHERS
-- Dividend pay-outs by UK companies are set to jump sharply this year
- FT.
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EURO SUPPLY PIPELINE: Mar. 22
FINANCIALS
* Banco Popolare Espanol - Has hired RBS and UBS to run a covered bond
program on its behalf, according to sources.
* VEB - Is to issue an inaugural deal in Euros. Leads are Barclays,
Citigroup, HSBC and SocGen.
* NIBC Bank - Is to issue a benchmark, covered deal in Euros. The deal
will be launched following investor presentations and the leads are
Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse and NIBC.
* Eurohypo Luxembourg - Is to issue a benchmark, 3 year fixed rate
covered deal in Euros. Price talk is in the mid-market swaps plus
35-40 bps area and the leads are BNPP, Commerzbank and LBBW.
* Berlin-Hannoversche Hypothekenbank - Is to issue a benchmark, 6 year
fixed rate covered deal in Euros. Price talk is in the mid-market
swaps plus 12 bps area and the leads are BayernLB, DekaBank and
UniCredit.
* Landwirtschaft Rentenbank - Is to issue a E250 million, 7 year FRN
deal. Price talk is in the Euribor plus 10 bps area and the sole lead
is DZ Bank.
CORPORATES
* Abengoa - Is rumoured to be considering issuing a deal in Euros, at
some time in the near future. Leads are mooted to be BNPP, Deutsche
Bank, Calyon, Credit Suisse, Banco Santander and SocGen.
* Vicat - Has mandated BNPP, Credit Agricole and SocGen to organise a
roadshow which will occur in Paris and London next week. The company
will issue an inaugural Eurobond deal in the near future subject to
market conditions.
OTHERS
* Madrid - is to issue a benchmark, 10 year fixed rate deal in Euros.
Price talk is in the mid-market swaps plus 130 bps area and the leads
are Caja Madrid, HSBC and Credit Agricole.
* The state of North Rhine-Westphalia - Is to issue a E250 million, 5
year FRN deal. Price talk is in the Euribor plus 15 bps area and the
sole lead is DZ Bank.
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MACRO EVENT RISK AND SPEAKERS
There are no early European events on Monday, as the calendar gets going
at 1000GMT, when the Swiss National Bank releases it's Quarterly
Bulletin for March 2010. The Bundesbank then issues it's monthly report
at 1100GMT.
At 1230GMT, ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber and Christian Noyer
are due to participate in a debate on "The Euro in the Financial Crisis
- lessons and perspectives", in Copenhagen.
US data starts at 1330GMT with the weekly MNI Capital Goods Index, which
is followed at 1430GMT by the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index.
Also at 1430GMT, Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker speaks at
European Parliament.
At 1500GMT, EMU Mar consumer confidence is expected to improve
slightly, to a reading of -17.0.
At 1530GMT, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet gives an introductory
statement at the quarterly hearing before the Committee on Economic and
Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, in Brussels.
At 1645GMT, ECB Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo is
due to speak at the USA-European Union Forum: 'Looking towards the
future', in New York.
In the US,, at 1945GMT, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart delivers a
speech on the economic outlook at the Naples Council on World Affairs.
He will repeat that speech at 2300GMT.
Finally, at 2045GMT, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner speaks at the
American Enterprise Institute on the subject of financial regulatory
reform.